Protected Population Immunity, not a Vaccine, is the Way to Stop Covid-19 Pandemic

In a short period of only 4 months, Covid-19 pandemic has caused more than~200,000 fatalities, with 2.7 million confirmed cases of SARS-Cov-2 infections, and economic losses in the trillions of USD worldwide.

An article on Wall Street Journal’s Economy section on March 6, 2020, read “Global viral outbreaks like Coronavirus, once rare, will become more common” [1]. BBC also reported on March 25, 2020 (Covid-19: the history of pandemics) that the rate of new epidemics like SARS, MERS and Covid-19 has increased 4-fold over the past century. The annual outbreak of epidemics in the last 40 years has doubled [2]. On the List of Epidemics entry of Wikipedia, in the short 20 years of the 21st century, there has been over 60 epidemics compared to the less than 100 epidemics in the entire 19th and 20th centuries combined. This is about a 650% annual increase in the number of epidemics in the last 20 years compared to the 200 years prior! Moreover, there have been 11 epidemics in the 21^st century that caused more than 1,000 fatalities, compared to the 14 epidemics in the 200 years prior. If we use fatality of 1,000 as a marker for severity, there has been an increase of 785% [3].

Probably the most common term used to describe prevention of epidemics is "vaccine." International agencies like WHO, sovereign governments, major foundations, pharmaceutical industry, as well as leaders in major medical institutions appear to be all focused on vaccine and vaccine only.

We wish we had a Covid-19 vaccine today. We wish we had a Covod-19 vaccine 4 months ago. But unfortunately, we didn’t had we don’t.  The best estimate of a vaccine is at least 18-24 months away, if possible at all.

The nature of vaccine development makes vaccine strategy against new epidemics a less than ideal one. Let’s look at the process of how a vaccine is developed.

First, a new pathogen (e.g., SARS-Cov-2 virus that causes Covid-19 pandemic) appears and causes a local infectious disease outbreak. This eventually catches the attention of the local medical agencies and governments. Scientists then begin to study the new infectious disease, identify the new pathogen, develop a vaccine, which needs to go through clinical trials to demonstrate its safety and effectiveness. If the clinical trial is successful, an application for approval by the FDA is then submitted.  If a vaccine is finally approved by the FDA, then it is then mass produced and distributed for clinical use. This is a lengthy process, with at least 2-3 years after a new epidemic breaks out. To make things worse, due the frequent mutations of viruses, especially for RNA viruses, and due to the delay in finally mass-producing a vaccine, the virus has likely mutated to lower the vaccine's efficacy [4].

Covid-19 has already caused nearly~200,000 deaths and trillions of dollars in economic damage in a short period of 4 months. The best estimate for a vaccine is still 1.5-2 year away. Likely many more lives and much more economic damage will occur in the next 18 to 24 months while we are waiting and expecting a vaccine. What if we will never see an effective vaccine? , In the history of medicine, there has never been a vaccine developed in a timely manner to stop an ongoing new epidemic. Successful vaccines today are only effective against an existing infectious disease or recurrent epidemic, not a new epidemic. Even so, for most of the many recent epidemics like SARS, MERS, Ebola, Marburg, Zika, and Dengue, to name just a few, there is no vaccine. Further, vaccines can only prevent an infection.  Vaccines are not treatment for infections.

We clearly need better preventive and treatment measures to deal with the disturbingly increasing trend of epidemics. Ideally good preventive and treatment measures for new epidemics should have the following characteristics:

For new epidemics, vaccines clearly don’t meet the above criteria.

Vitamin C

Vitamin C has pleiotropic biological effects including but not limited to its antiviral and antimicrobial effects, immune-boosting effects, as well as antioxidant effects.

With vaccines against Covid-19 not anywhere near, the only other hope to stop the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be population immunity -- when enough members of a population develop immunity against SARS-Cov-2 virus.

But to leave the public without any protection from the risk of a SARS-Cov-2 infection seems cruel, unethical and may even cause a public outcry.

However, with sufficient doses of vitamin C (3000 mg/d in divided doses, and other nutrients such as vitamin D3 (2000-5000IU/d), zinc (20 mg/d), magnesium (400 mg/d), to name a few) should lower the risk of the public developing the infection, and can protect patients in the initial stages of infection from progressing to more serious disease [20]. Vitamins C and D are known to assist and empower the immune system to prevent viral infection [20-28], and vitamin C in high oral doses (to bowel tolerance)) [29,30] can denature viruses and prevent damage to the body from oxidative stress.  Supplemental high-dose oral or intravenous vitamin C is indicated in severe infections and oxidative stress because they cause the vitamin C level to drop to zero [25]. Zinc and magnesium are known anti-viral agents [28]. [[need references on prevention with vit C, D, zinc, and magnesium]] With such a treatment that has worked to prevent serious infection of a variety of other viruses, further research is clearly indicated here. When proven, this strategy not only can help stop Covid-19 pandemic, it will also protect us in the future epidemics.

Thanks to the members of the editorial board of Orthomolecular Medicine News Service who reviewed and critiqued this manuscript, including the choice of “population immunity” over “herd immunity”.